Luntz: Trump Voters Still Missing From Midterm Polls
By Ward ClarkFrank Luntz has been in the political polling game for a long time. He's been right at times and he's been wrong at times, but then, one could say that about most any pollster. It's hardly an exact science.
But there's something that Luntz is on about now that we've heard and seen in other places; the polls now, that are predicting some big Democrat gains, may be badly underestimating Republican voters — particularly Trump voters. Mr. Luntz recently spoke on CNN about the topic.
💥Frank Luntz *DUMPS COLD WATER* on CNN viewers' dreams of blue wave💥 Luntz warned Trump voters "don't respond" to pollster phone calls. He admitted he "got 2016 wrong" because he trusted the exit polls. Luntz asserted he is "skeptical" the current polling is accurate. Moreover, he cast doubt on whether pollsters are using the right measurements and asking the proper questions to determine turnout. Luntz has been a renowned pollster for decades, so this is meaningful coming from him. He knows firsthand how polling can miss Trump voters. Since there are many close races, underestimating Republican turnout by a small margin could make all the difference. It sounds like there’s a real chance of that happening.
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) October 18, 2026
When asked if polls were badly underestimating Trump voters, Luntz said:
We know that they (Trump voters) don't respond to phone calls. We know that in the exit polling back in 2016, and I say this publicly because I want people to hear this. You know, I teach at West Point. I cannot lie, cheat or steal. The cadets can't, I can't. I got 2016 wrong. I believed in the exit polls. Trump voters walked away, refused to participate, because they thought that it was against them. They thought that the polls were all biased. And that's what Republicans are being told right now. Don't believe the polls. They're not accurate. Well, they may be. We're about to find out. But I'm still skeptical. In the end, Republicans are less likely to participate. They're less likely to believe the polls are happening. But I'm most interested in turnout in the end, and there are ways to measure it, and I'm not sure that they're doing it.
That's an interesting notion, and it's likely accurate; from the moment Donald Trump walked down a golden escalator in New York in 2015 and announced his candidacy as a Republican, everything in the American political landscape changed. We thought it was a gag. We thought it was a joke candidacy. We were wrong. The pollsters were wrong. Trump was and is serious, and Republicans by and large no longer trust, or are willing to respond to, the polls. So, how big a difference might that make?
Look at the Senate. A three-point shift in the RealClear Polling averages for the Senate seats is telling. Using the current averages (bear in mind, these change daily), if the election were held today and were the polls accurate, the Senate would end up in Democrat hands, 53-47. But change those numbers by the three-point shift, and the Senate belongs to Republicans, 54-46.
In the House, things are a little more muddled. The current averages in polling have the Democrats landing a House majority, 235-226. A shift of three points... makes it a lot closer. The Democrats or the Republicans could win, but it will be a narrow majority either way.
Now, predictions are hard to make, especially about the future. But I do know that the tendency of Republicans and particularly Trump voters to distrust, and to refuse to speak to pollsters seems to be growing. That may make a big difference next month.
Once more, the key is turnout. The Democrats have, historically, been better at turning out their voters. We have to beat them. We have to beat them by beyond any margin of fraud. We have to get every single Republican and right-leaning independent to the polls.
Vote! Vote! Vote!
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