Veteran SF Operator Grapples with Iran MOU: Public Defeat or Setup for Internal Regime Collapse?
Hey everyone!
I've read many opinions and thoughts about this Iran MoU matter, and I've posted a number of them on various blog posts since this whole thing began.
Today however, I finally read a comment from someone I like and follow on 𝕏 that really expresses my thoughts, ideas, and perspective on the matter. So, check out this comment from "Green Beret Nap Time"
-Tex
By Green Beret Nap Time
Here’s my competing thoughts about this MOU with Iran…
The fact that we are making a deal without unconditional surrender from Iran is a problem. Losing looks like losing.
Making a terrible deal is terrible no matter how much pressure is on you.
You either accept peace on your terms from a position of power, or you capitulate and make a deal that looks like a loss to anyone paying attention.
Now that I’ve griped a bit and assumed this is exactly what it looks like, let’s talk nuance.
This isn’t the final treaty, of course, so there is room for changes, demands, and even the old “give them enough rope to hang themselves with” mentality (yes, I get it, such would be silly from any logical perspective).
I don’t love these possibilities because it makes it seem like we are the ones pushing for peace without our goals being met.
We obviously don’t have the full picture, not most of us opining (and we won’t without clearance and a need to know), so I still think it is important to trust that Trump will fulfill the requirements he pushed at the beginning of this conflict.
The Unconventional Warfare aspect is the one I keep going back to, because it is the most important aspect and because it has the best chance at success without putting conventional boots on the ground.
The problem is that UW takes time… especially if the entire ecosystem has to be set up from relative scratch.
If nothing else good comes from all of this, the ultra denied aspect of Iran has at least been weakened enough to allow for an insurgency to have a real shot at success.
UW couldn’t have happened before the 13,000 sorties.
It can now.
I wish this was a faster process and that we had some confirmation, but it is not fast and if we knew, so would the IRGC.
Large aspects of UW happen in the shadows for a reason.
Also, sometimes certain plans require a public action that doesn’t make sense at the time to those on the outside looking in, but could be exactly what was required.
Again, we simply don’t have all of the answers.
If it turns out how it looks without any underlying rationale, then I’m pretty disappointed.
If it’s a ploy to move us forward to a place we need to be for the regime to collapse from the inside, then I will nod my hat in praise.
Until then, I have to have faith in the administration and the important people that hopefully understand what is at stake.
Original Here
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