Things Go From Bad to Worse for Dan Goldman on the Eve of the NYC Primary

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By Sister Toldjah

One of the most closely watched primaries in New York City involving Mamdani-backed challengers has been the 13th Congressional District race, pitting incumbent Democrat Rep. Adriano Espaillat against Democratic socialist and self-proclaimed community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier.

Avila Chevalier, as RedState has documented, is a couple fries short of a Happy Meal, if you catch my meaning, and has established herself as perhaps the only Democrat challenger in the Big Apple that might be too woke and far left even for them, with recent polling and prediction markets shifting back into Espaillat's direction after Avila Chevalier appeared to experience a mid-May surge.

One that hasn't received as much media attention but which will also be interesting to see play out on Primary Day Tuesday is the one in the 10th Congressional District - "one of the most progressive and most Jewish districts in America" according to the New York Times - where former NYC comptroller and failed mayoral candidate Brad Lander (D) is challenging current Democrat congressman Dan Goldman, who is vying for a third term in office.

The issue of the Israel-Hamas war is front and center in this race. But though both the Mamdani-endorsed Lander and the Hochul-endorsed Goldman are Jewish, Goldman has tried to straddle the fence between being pro-Israel and appeasing its critics, while Lander has actually presented himself more or less as the anti-Israel candidate, who during a June campaign event last week promised to "join you in that fight to end occupation, and apartheid and genocide."

In mid-May, RedState reported on how Goldman, who rode into Congress primarily on his record of being the lead counsel for House Democrats in President Trump's first impeachment inquiry, appeared to be in deep trouble in his reelection bid against Lander, with staggering poll numbers that showed Lander at 57 percent and Goldman at 23 percent, while 20 percent of primary voters were undecided.

A month later, and on the eve of the primary, it appears that at this point a Goldman defeat is not really even a question anymore, so much so that the Kalshi prediction market has moved on to posting the odds of whether Lander can defeat Goldman by 45 percent or more:

CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, also indicated on Monday that it didn't look good at all for Goldman:

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Yes, I don't think that Israel has played a bigger role in any district, any more than in this particular district. We are talking about New York's 10th District. I mean, chance to be the New York Ten Dem nominee, Dan Goldman, the incumbent, a hero of the Trump first impeachment trial among Democrats, only has a one, two, three percent chance of actually holding on to his Democratic designation to be the Dem nominee in this particular race. 

Brad Lander, who was last seen running for mayor in New York City, 98 percent chance. The reason why Dan Goldman is in trouble is because of the issue of Israel. He is seen by many in that district as being too pro-Israel. Lander has the endorsement of Zohran Mamdani, who, you know, obviously, when it comes to the issue of Israel, has been much more pro-Palestinian than pro-Israeli.

[CNN ANCHOR JOHN] BERMAN: Of course, this is what the Kalshi prediction markets are saying about this race tomorrow, but you can look at any of the polls that have been out there.

ENTEN: Any -- this matches up with the internal polling 100 percent.

Will I be sad to see Goldman go if he loses the primary on Tuesday? No. But it says a lot about NYC that it's come to the point now where some Jewish Democrats who want to have a chance at winning have to take the route that Lander took in order to (presumably) advance.

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