Are Air Attacks on Iran Seriously Depleting US Munitions?
By Dave Patterson
he war in Iran erupted nine days ago, and as the US continues hammering the Middle Eastern nation with air strikes, many are wondering if such attacks are depleting US military supplies. The short answer is no. Even with the massive amount of munitions being expended on ground targets inside Iran and in air defense against Iranian ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles, the US is not running out of ordnance. But US forces are phasing in certain types of munitions where stockpiles are plentiful, suggesting good stewardship of air combat capabilities.
The War Against Iran and Precision Weapons
Arguably, the rate at which the US is using its fighters, bombers, support aircraft, and precision munitions, including Tomahawk cruise missiles and other air-launched ordnance, is unprecedented. It is true that the quantity of such munitions is finite, should there be no effort to replenish the stockpile. As Operation Epic Fury enters its second week, the need to rely on standoff weapons like Tomahawk cruise missiles and advanced systems like the new Precision Strike Missile has diminished. In the opening days of US and Israeli air operations, before Iran’s air defense capability was destroyed, reliance on longer-range weapons was essential.
The opening salvos of the war included mostly BMG-109 Tomahawks. These are slow but accurate, and they have a range of more than 1,000. “They cost several million dollars apiece, and the US has about 4,000 remaining in its stockpiles,” Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, told Bloomberg. But now the US and Israel have achieved air dominance by eliminating Iran’s air defense capabilities, which enables B-1 and B-52 bombers, as well as fighters, to attack targets flying in Iranian airspace unopposed. This enables the use of munitions for which there are much larger stockpiles. Aircraft can now employ 500-, 1,000-, and 2,000-pound hard bombs with Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) bolt-on guidance kits. These are fixtures that fit on the tail of an unguided “dumb” bomb, converting it into a precision-guided bomb using GPS and inertial guidance. So modified, they can strike targets within five meters of an aiming point. The explosive power provided by a JDAM makes that level of accuracy a “precision” munition. Additionally, all the US attacking aircraft can carry JDAMs.
That does not mean that rebuilding the stockpiles of precision munitions like Tomahawk missiles should go unattended. To that end, President Donald Trump called together the chief executive officers of the primary precision-munitions providers to encourage them to accelerate production. In a Truth Social post, Trump explained:
“We just concluded a very good meeting with the largest U.S. Defense Manufacturing Companies, where we discussed Production and Production Schedules. They have agreed to quadruple Production of the ‘Exquisite Class’ Weaponry in that we want to reach, as rapidly as possible, the highest levels of quantity. Expansion began three months prior to the meeting, and Plants and Production of many of these Weapons are already underway. We have a virtually unlimited supply of Medium and Upper Medium Grade Munitions, which we are using, as an example, in Iran, and recently used in Venezuela.”
The Medium and Upper Medium Grade Munitions the president is referring to are the JDAMs. Trump also said the aerospace and defense companies represented were “the CEOs of BAE Systems, Boeing, Honeywell Aerospace, L3Harris Missile Solutions, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Raytheon.” These companies are the prime contractors for the critical precision weapons, but hundreds of subcontractors and suppliers must also be mobilized.
Greater Stockpiles of Inexpensive Precision-Guided Bombs
In addition to having significant stockpiles with orders for considerably more, an upside to being able to use these weapons is the relatively low cost of the JDAMs. This is not the case with air defense missiles like the Patriot and THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) air defense systems, which cost approximately $3 million and $13 million respectively, and have been used to bring down much less expensive Iranian ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. The cost-to-effect calculus weighs heavily in favor of the Iranians. To help address this problem, the US is using an improved variation of the Iranian Shahed-136 delta-winged drone against targets in Iran. The variant, called the Low-cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System or LUCAS, is being mass-produced and launched against Iranian targets – allowing Iran to reap what it has sown. At approximately $35,000 each, the LUCAS is an inexpensive alternative to much more costly drones.
Furthermore, the US could turn to technology developed by the Ukrainians to bring down the hundreds of Iranian-designed Shahed-136 drones launched at Ukraine nightly. According to the Institute for the Study of War: “Ukraine manufactures and relies on relatively cheap Shahed interceptor drones that cost only a few thousand dollars each to produce. Ukraine has years of experience defending against almost nightly large-scale Russian drone and missile strike packages, which have included Iranian-origin strike drones much like those the United States and its allies currently face in the Middle East.”
As the air battle continues in the skies over Iran and the Gulf States, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt asserted: “The US military has more than enough munitions, ammo, and weapons stockpiles to continue demolishing the Iranian regime and achieve the goals of Operation Epic Fury.” Nonetheless, at the rate munitions are being used, US war planners must anticipate that Israeli and American fighters and bombers will destroy Iran’s combat capability before munitions inventories run dangerously low. So far, that seems to be the case.
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