War With Iran 'Imminent'? Trump Could Give the 'Go' Order at Any Time
By Rick MoranThe U.S. and Iran held indirect talks in Geneva on Tuesday on ending Iran's nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile programs. Donald Trump's advisers, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, met with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi for three hours, with no substantive progress toward meeting any of Trump's demands.
While the U.S. and Iran were engaged in fruitless negotiations, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave a speech in Tehran, rejecting U.S. demands that Iran end its enrichment and nuclear programs.
"Khamenei stated that Iran has a 'right' to have a 'nuclear industry,' which is a reference to Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment capabilities," reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Khamenei also described "Iran’s 'possession of deterrent weapons,' almost certainly in reference to Iran’s ballistic missiles, as 'essential and obligatory' and claimed that this issue has 'nothing to do with' the United States," the report continued.
However, since Iran has launched thousands of ballistic missiles at Israel, our primary ally in the Middle East, and dozens of missiles at Saudi Arabia (not to mention funding terror groups and the Houthis's insurgency in Yemen), Iran has made the missiles an issue with the United States.
Witkoff told Iran to get back to us with new proposals in two weeks. As a reminder, Witkoff told Iran the same thing back in June, and three days later, essentially took out the Iranian nuclear program.
There is already a powerful armada in the waters off Iran, with the USS Abraham Lincoln and support ships on station in the Arabian Sea. They were joined on Feb. 17 by 50 additional F-35s, F-22s, and F-16s. Also on Feb. 17, Gulf News is reporting the most powerful aircraft carrier in the world, the USS Gerald R. Ford, entered the Strait of Gibraltar from the Atlantic side and is transiting into the Mediterranean Sea."
The Ford's position in the Mediterranean suggests the carrier could come within striking distance of Iran by approximately Feb. 20, depending on transit speed.
After the fruitless negotiating session in Geneva and Khamenei's defiant speech, Trump must realize that negotiations are a bust and that a decision must be made on whether to take the United States to war.
As Axios points out, "It's not in Trump's nature, and his advisers don't view the deployment of all that hardware as a bluff."
The Israeli government — which is pushing for a maximalist scenario targeting regime change as well as Iran's nuclear and missile programs — is preparing for a scenario of war within days, according to two Israeli officials.
Some U.S. sources tell Axios that the U.S. might need more time. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said strikes could still be weeks away. But others say the timeline could be shorter.
"The boss is getting fed up. Some people around him warn him against going to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks," one Trump adviser said.
U.S. officials said after Tuesday's talks that Iran needs to come back with a detailed proposal in two weeks.
"There's no evidence a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran is on the horizon. But there's more and more evidence that a war is imminent," concludes Axios.
As in June, Israel may be first off the blocks, targeting Iran's air defenses and weakening the ability of Tehran to hit back with their ballistic missiles. That may take two or three days, which lines up with the timeline for the Gerald R. Ford to be on station and ready for battle.
Is the goal "regime change"? Trump may be hoping that one strong push will topple the whole rotten edifice of Iranian murder and repression, but it's a longshot. Iran may be on the precipice of disintegration, but it's likely to go down fighting in a horrific bloodbath as the people rise up, trying to end their long, national nightmare.
The new year promises to be one of the most pivotal in recent history. Midterm elections will determine if we continue to move forward or slide back into lawfare, impeachments, and the toleration of fraud.
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